M. Andreeva vs A. Potapova — prediction

US Open

ANDREEVAWIN PROBABILITYPOTAPOVA

70%

model prob.

@1.16

odds · 86% impl.

⚔H2H 3–1 Andreeva◐Hard 71%🎾Serve 62%📈Form 7/10 · 3✓

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

26°C

Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.

Humidity◇

36%

Dry air: the ball travels normally.

Wind◇

14 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #5 vs #25 (better ranked)

›Head-to-head: 3-1 in favor

›Solid on Hard: 67% career on the surface

›Model 70% vs market 86% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds

›Recent form: 7/10 in recent matches

›On a streak: 3 wins in a row

›Match-sharp: 3 matches in the last 2 weeks

Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.43

fair odds

−18.7%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · MODEL ANALYSIS

The model makes M. Andreeva the favorite with a 70% win probability, against A. Potapova's 30% — a solid favorite, though Potapova keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.43; the offered odds are around @1.16 (a 86% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: #5 vs #25 (better ranked); 3-1 in favor; 67% career on the surface; model 70% vs market 86% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 70%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 30 out of every 100 times Potapova wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of M. Andreeva vs A. Potapova — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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