Pick track record
Every published prediction, with its result — two separate series. No hiding the misses.
Tiers & EV — how to read the table
| Grade | What it means |
|---|---|
| ELITE | EV ≥ +3%, probability ≥ 60% and odds ≥ 1.40 — confidence, a real edge and a price that pays, all aligned. The strongest grade. |
| TIGHT | A reliable read that falls short of the Elite bar: odds too short, no clear edge over the market, or probability under 60%. |
| SPECULATIVE | The model strongly disagrees with the market (EV ≥ +15%) or the match is near a coin flip (probability < 50%). High variance. |
| EV | Expected value against the market: probability × odds − 1. An EV of +5% means that if our probability is right, the price pays 5% more than fair. Positive EV is a long-run edge, never a guaranteed win. |
| Date | Pick | Tier | Prob. | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7 | TIGHT | — | — | — | · Pending | |
| Sep 6 | Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul | TIGHT | 82% | @1.20 | −1.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Sep 5 | Luciano Darderi vs Dane Sweeny | TIGHT | 66% | @1.32 | −13.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Sep 4 | Ben Shelton vs Denis Shapovalov | TIGHT | 73% | @1.29 | −5.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Sep 3 | Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils | TIGHT | 80% | @1.25 | +0.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Sep 2 | Frances Tiafoe vs Rei Sakamoto | TIGHT | 83% | @1.29 | +6.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Sep 1 | Flavio Cobolli vs Francisco Comesana | TIGHT | 82% | @1.23 | +1.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Aug 31 | C. Alcaraz vs R. Safiullin | TIGHT | 92% | @1.22 | +12.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Aug 30 | N. Djokovic vs M. Navone | TIGHT | 86% | @1.20 | +3.6% | ✕ Miss |
| Aug 29 | E. Mertens vs D. Parry | TIGHT | 63% | @1.44 | −9.2% | ✕ Miss |
| Date | Pick | Tier | Prob. | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7 | ELITE | — | — | — | · Pending | |
| Sep 6 | A. Sabalenka + Ben Shelton vs T. Townsend + Stefanos Tsitsipas | SPECULATIVE | 67% | @1.74 | +16.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Sep 5 | E. Rybakina + Flavio Cobolli vs Y. Starodubtseva + Alexander Blockx | SPECULATIVE | 71% | @2.07 | +46.2% | ✕ Miss |
| Sep 4 | J. Pegula + Daniil Medvedev vs L. Fernandez + Arthur Rinderknech | TIGHT | 64% | @1.60 | +1.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Sep 3 | E. Rybakina + Felix Auger-Aliassime vs J. Bouzas Maneiro + Karen Khachanov | SPECULATIVE | 77% | @1.60 | +23.9% | ✕ Miss |
| Sep 2 | Frances Tiafoe + L. Noskova vs Rei Sakamoto + L. Tararudee | ELITE | 68% | @1.61 | +9.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Sep 1 | Daniel Altmaier vs Zachary Svajda | SPECULATIVE | 59% | @2.38 | +39.2% | ✕ Miss |
| Aug 31 | V. Vacherot vs A. Kovacevic | SPECULATIVE | 68% | @1.88 | +28.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Aug 30 | T. Machac vs T. Samuel | SPECULATIVE | 63% | @2.28 | +43.0% | ✕ Miss |
| Aug 27 | Z. Piros vs C. O'Connell | SPECULATIVE | 74% | @2.26 | +67.8% | Void · Walkover |
Live record, settled automatically match by match. For the full methodology, calibration, and backtests, visit Transparency. +18 · play responsibly.