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+18Baseline is an informational prediction tool. It's not a sportsbook and doesn't guarantee winnings: the model ≈ the market on average. Play responsibly · jugarbien.es
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Analyze a match
Search for a player or match, or pick one — the model's prediction appears below.
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Matches · by tournament
US OpenWTA5 matches
US Open🔒 ATP2 matches
SevilleChallenger5 matches
ShanghaiChallenger8 matches
CassisChallenger3 matches
IstanbulChallenger4 matches
Phan Thiet 3 (Vietnam) - QualificationChallenger2 matches
GenovaChallenger4 matches
TullnChallenger3 matches
Today's matches: ATP and WTA with the factor model (65.5% ATP / 65.1% WTA audited accuracy); Challenger/ITF with an Elo estimate (soft market, edge unproven). 18+ · gamble responsibly.
Analysis of the selected match
ANALYZE MATCH · MODEL PREDICTION
● HARD
J. Pegula vs E. Navarro
US Open
PEGULAWIN PROBABILITYNAVARRO
83%
model prob.
@1.25
odds · 80% impl.
fair odds
expected value
⚔H2H 4–0 Pegula⏱Rest 1d vs 3d◐Hard 75%🎾Serve 61%📈Form 9/10 · 4✓
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
◐Surface◆
Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

🌡Temperature◇
27°C

Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.

💧Humidity◇
31%

Very dry air: the ball travels faster.

🌬Wind◇
13 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #3 vs #27 (better ranked)

›Head-to-head: 4-0 in favor

›Solid on Hard: 72% career on the surface

›Recent form: 9/10 in recent matches

›On a streak: 4 wins in a row

›Match-sharp: 4 matches in the last 2 weeks

MATCH CONTEXT

•Pegula — playing at home — USA player at a USA event (US Open); crowd support, historically already priced by the market

Calibrated model probability (~64% accuracy out of sample, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture nearly all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.
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