Flavio Cobolli vs Tristan Schoolkate — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #6 vs #180 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches
›Match-sharp: 3 matches in the last 2 weeks
The model makes Flavio Cobolli the favorite with a 82% win probability, against Tristan Schoolkate's 18% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.21; the offered odds are around @1.24 (a 81% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.
Several factors explain the number: #6 vs #180 (better ranked); 5/10 in recent matches; 3 matches in the last 2 weeks.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 82%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 18 out of every 100 times Schoolkate wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.