J. Duckworth vs Y. Wu — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Mild: neutral conditions.
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #71 vs #113 (better ranked)
›Model 56% vs market 43% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds
›Recent form: 8/10 in recent matches
›On a streak: 5 wins in a row
›Match-sharp: 5 matches in the last 2 weeks
The model makes J. Duckworth the favorite with a 56% win probability, against Y. Wu's 44% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.79; the offered odds are around @2.34 (a 43% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.
Several factors explain the number: #71 vs #113 (better ranked); model 56% vs market 43% → the model sees it as more likely than the odds; 8/10 in recent matches; 5 wins in a row.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 56%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 44 out of every 100 times Wu wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.