A. Potapova vs D. Semenistaja — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #25 vs #109 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches
›More rested: 16d vs opponent's 4d
The model makes A. Potapova the favorite with a 78% win probability, against D. Semenistaja's 22% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.28; the offered odds are around @1.24 (a 81% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #25 vs #109 (better ranked); 5/10 in recent matches; 16d vs opponent's 4d.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 78%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 22 out of every 100 times Semenistaja wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.