M. Landaluce vs J. Fearnley — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #65 vs #100 (better ranked)
›Hard specialist: performs +11% above baseline (50% career on the surface)
›Recent form: 2/10 in recent matches
›Match-sharp: 4 matches in the last 2 weeks
›More rested: 6d vs opponent's 1d
!Coming off 3 losses in a row
The model makes M. Landaluce the favorite with a 55% win probability, against J. Fearnley's 45% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.81; the offered odds are around @1.93 (a 52% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.
Several factors explain the number: #65 vs #100 (better ranked); performs +11% above baseline (50% career on the surface); 2/10 in recent matches; 4 matches in the last 2 weeks.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 55%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 45 out of every 100 times Fearnley wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Coming off 3 losses in a row. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.