C. Norrie vs L. van Assche — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #33 vs #40 (better ranked)
›Head-to-head: 3-0 in favor
›Recent form: 7/10 in recent matches
›More rested: 13d vs opponent's 4d
The model makes C. Norrie the favorite with a 64% win probability, against L. van Assche's 36% — a solid favorite, though Assche keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.56; the offered odds are around @1.51 (a 66% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.
Several factors explain the number: #33 vs #40 (better ranked); 3-0 in favor; 7/10 in recent matches; 13d vs opponent's 4d.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 64%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 36 out of every 100 times Assche wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.