Y. Yuan vs M. Stoiana — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Some wind: makes baseline control harder.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #138 vs #122
›Hard specialist: performs +5% above baseline (49% career on the surface)
›Model 65% vs market 47% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds
›Recent form: 4/10 in recent matches
›On a streak: 2 wins in a row
The model makes Y. Yuan the favorite with a 65% win probability, against M. Stoiana's 35% — a solid favorite, though Stoiana keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.55; the offered odds are around @2.11 (a 47% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.
Several factors explain the number: #138 vs #122; performs +5% above baseline (49% career on the surface); model 65% vs market 47% → the model sees it as more likely than the odds; 4/10 in recent matches.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 65%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 35 out of every 100 times Stoiana wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.