A. Guerrieri vs A. Dougaz — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Some wind: makes baseline control harder.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Tour Elo: 1874 vs 1805 — favorite by rating
›ATP qualifying / early round · 285 matches in the favorite's track record
›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): qualifying draws have no clean main-tour history
!Qualifying/soft context: Elo estimate only — read the round context (already-through, lucky loser, dead rubber) from the dossier; it is not a proven edge.
The model makes A. Guerrieri the favorite with a 60% win probability, against A. Dougaz's 40% — a solid favorite, though Dougaz keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.67; the offered odds are around @2.00 (a 50% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.
Several factors explain the number: 1874 vs 1805 — favorite by rating; atp qualifying / early round · 285 matches in the favorite's track record; qualifying draws have no clean main-tour history.
Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 40 out of every 100 times Dougaz wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Qualifying/soft context: Elo estimate only — read the round context (already-through, lucky loser, dead rubber) from the dossier; it is not a proven edge.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.