S. Costoulas vs J. Ruggeri — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #155 vs #216 (better ranked)
›Model 59% vs market 91% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches
›Match-sharp: 3 matches in the last 2 weeks
The model makes S. Costoulas the favorite with a 59% win probability, against J. Ruggeri's 41% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.71; the offered odds are around @1.10 (a 91% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #155 vs #216 (better ranked); model 59% vs market 91% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds; 5/10 in recent matches; 3 matches in the last 2 weeks.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 59%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 41 out of every 100 times Ruggeri wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.