J. Fearnley vs R. Carballes Baena — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #107 vs #190 (better ranked)
›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor
›Model 58% vs market 88% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches
›Match-sharp: 4 matches in the last 2 weeks
The model makes J. Fearnley the favorite with a 58% win probability, against R. Carballes Baena's 42% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.72; the offered odds are around @1.14 (a 88% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #107 vs #190 (better ranked); 1-0 in favor; model 58% vs market 88% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds; 6/10 in recent matches.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 58%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 42 out of every 100 times Baena wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.