H. Squire vs D. Jorda Sanchis — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #208 vs #187
›Model 50% vs market 69% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches
›More rested: 17d vs opponent's 6d
The model makes H. Squire the favorite with a 50% win probability, against D. Jorda Sanchis's 50% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @2.00; the offered odds are around @1.45 (a 69% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #208 vs #187; model 50% vs market 69% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds; 6/10 in recent matches; 17d vs opponent's 6d.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 50%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 50 out of every 100 times Sanchis wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.