C. Garin vs S. Johnson — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #137 vs #445 (better ranked)
›Model 68% vs market 42% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds
The model makes C. Garin the favorite with a 68% win probability, against S. Johnson's 32% — a solid favorite, though Johnson keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.46; the offered odds are around @2.40 (a 42% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.
Several factors explain the number: #137 vs #445 (better ranked); model 68% vs market 42% → the model sees it as more likely than the odds.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 68%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 32 out of every 100 times Johnson wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.