V. Gaubas vs P. Lagutin — prediction

Seville

✗ Missed

GAUBASWIN PROBABILITYLAGUTIN

63%

Elo prob.

@1.40

odds · 71% impl.

⏱Rest 11d vs 1d◐Clay 43%🎾Serve 63%📈Form 5/10

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Clay

Slow court, high bounce: longer points, rewards whoever holds up from the baseline.

Temperature◇

37°C

Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.

Humidity◇

24%

Very dry air: the ball travels faster.

Wind◇

14 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1819 vs 1723 — favorite by rating

›Challenger tier · 311 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.58

fair odds

−11.2%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes V. Gaubas the favorite with a 63% win probability, against P. Lagutin's 37% — a solid favorite, though Lagutin keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.58; the offered odds are around @1.40 (a 71% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: 1819 vs 1723 — favorite by rating; challenger tier · 311 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 37 out of every 100 times Lagutin wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of V. Gaubas vs P. Lagutin — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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