ITF · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-09-08
● HARD
K. Rahmani vs T. Herrmann — prediction
M15 Monastir 30
✓ Correct
RAHMANIWIN PROBABILITYHERRMANN
65%
Elo prob.
@1.19
odds · 84% impl.
⏱Rest 9d vs 6d🎾Serve 51%📈Form 5/10 · 3✗
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Hard
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Temperature◇
32°C
Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.
Humidity◇
55%
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Wind◇
16 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON
›Tour Elo: 1593 vs 1484 — favorite by rating
›ITF tier · 75 matches in the favorite's track record
›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets
WATCH FOR
!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.
Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.