ITF · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-09-02

Y. Erel vs K. Ogura — prediction

M25 Urayasu (Japan)

ERELWIN PROBABILITYOGURA

88%

Elo prob.

@1.11

odds · 90% impl.

⚔H2H 1–0 Erel⏱Rest 5d vs 7d🎾Serve 66%📈Form 7/10

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1784 vs 1442 — favorite by rating

›ITF tier · 326 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.14

fair odds

−2.5%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes Y. Erel the favorite with a 88% win probability, against K. Ogura's 12% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.14; the offered odds are around @1.11 (a 90% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.

Several factors explain the number: 1784 vs 1442 — favorite by rating; itf tier · 326 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 12 out of every 100 times Ogura wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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