Francisco Cerundolo vs Filip Misolic — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Surface feeds the model — surface specialization is one of its factors.
›Ranking: #25 vs #537 (better ranked)
›Head-to-head: 2-0 in favor
›Model 87% vs market 93% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches
!Coming off 4 losses in a row
The model makes Francisco Cerundolo the favorite with a 87% win probability, against Filip Misolic's 13% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.14; the offered odds are around @1.07 (a 93% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #25 vs #537 (better ranked); 2-0 in favor; model 87% vs market 93% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds; 5/10 in recent matches.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 87%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 13 out of every 100 times Misolic wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Coming off 4 losses in a row. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.