R. Collignon vs R. Hijikata — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #38 vs #95 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches
›More rested: 11d vs opponent's 7d
!Coming off 4 losses in a row
The model makes R. Collignon the favorite with a 58% win probability, against R. Hijikata's 42% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.74; the offered odds are around @1.80 (a 56% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.
Several factors explain the number: #38 vs #95 (better ranked); 5/10 in recent matches; 11d vs opponent's 7d.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 58%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 42 out of every 100 times Hijikata wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Coming off 4 losses in a row. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.