L. Sonego vs V. Kopriva — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.
Very dry air: the ball travels faster.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #88 vs #71
›Head-to-head: 0-1 against
›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches
›More rested: 7d vs opponent's 3d
!Unfavorable head-to-head record (0-1)
The model makes L. Sonego the favorite with a 57% win probability, against V. Kopriva's 43% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.75; the offered odds are around @1.75 (a 57% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.
Several factors explain the number: #88 vs #71; 0-1 against; 6/10 in recent matches; 7d vs opponent's 3d.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 57%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 43 out of every 100 times Kopriva wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Unfavorable head-to-head record (0-1). This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.