C. Gauff vs M. Kostyuk — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #4 vs #11 (better ranked)
›Head-to-head: 3-2 in favor
›Solid on Hard: 71% career on the surface
›Recent form: 7/10 in recent matches
›On a streak: 3 wins in a row
›Match-sharp: 6 matches in the last 2 weeks
The model makes C. Gauff the favorite with a 60% win probability, against M. Kostyuk's 40% — a solid favorite, though Kostyuk keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.66; the offered odds are around @1.74 (a 57% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.
Several factors explain the number: #4 vs #11 (better ranked); 3-2 in favor; 71% career on the surface; 7/10 in recent matches.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 60%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 40 out of every 100 times Kostyuk wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.