A. Eala vs A. Anisimova — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #20 vs #10
›Recent form: 8/10 in recent matches
›Match-sharp: 4 matches in the last 2 weeks
›More rested: 7d vs opponent's 2d
!The opponent is ranked higher (#10)
The model makes A. Eala the favorite with a 52% win probability, against A. Anisimova's 48% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.92; the offered odds are around @2.07 (a 48% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.
Several factors explain the number: #20 vs #10; 8/10 in recent matches; 4 matches in the last 2 weeks; 7d vs opponent's 2d.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 52%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 48 out of every 100 times Anisimova wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: The opponent is ranked higher (#10). This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.