K. Jacquet vs B. Harris — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Mild: neutral conditions.
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #121 vs #162 (better ranked)
›Hard specialist: performs +7% above baseline (40% career on the surface)
›Model 66% vs market 78% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches
The model makes K. Jacquet the favorite with a 66% win probability, against B. Harris's 34% — a solid favorite, though Harris keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.52; the offered odds are around @1.29 (a 78% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #121 vs #162 (better ranked); performs +7% above baseline (40% career on the surface); model 66% vs market 78% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds; 5/10 in recent matches.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 66%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 34 out of every 100 times Harris wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.