Y. Yuan vs R. Zarazua — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #128 vs #73
›Hard specialist: performs +5% above baseline (49% career on the surface)
›Recent form: 1/10 in recent matches
The model makes Y. Yuan the favorite with a 51% win probability, against R. Zarazua's 49% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.97; the offered odds are around @1.97 (a 51% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.
Several factors explain the number: #128 vs #73; performs +5% above baseline (49% career on the surface); 1/10 in recent matches.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 51%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 49 out of every 100 times Zarazua wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.