M. Kostyuk vs M. Keys — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #13 vs #22 (better ranked)
›Head-to-head: 0-2 against
›Recent form: 8/10 in recent matches
!Unfavorable head-to-head record (0-2)
The model makes M. Kostyuk the favorite with a 58% win probability, against M. Keys's 42% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.74; the offered odds are around @1.77 (a 56% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.
Several factors explain the number: #13 vs #22 (better ranked); 0-2 against; 8/10 in recent matches.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 58%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 42 out of every 100 times Keys wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Unfavorable head-to-head record (0-2). This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.