B. Nakashima vs T. Droguet — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #33 vs #114 (better ranked)
›Model 67% vs market 75% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches
›Match-sharp: 8 matches in the last 2 weeks
The model makes B. Nakashima the favorite with a 67% win probability, against T. Droguet's 33% — a solid favorite, though Droguet keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.49; the offered odds are around @1.33 (a 75% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #33 vs #114 (better ranked); model 67% vs market 75% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds; 6/10 in recent matches; 8 matches in the last 2 weeks.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 67%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 33 out of every 100 times Droguet wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.