S. Ofner vs J. Fearnley — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #124 vs #159 (better ranked)
›Model 55% vs market 43% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds
›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches
›More rested: 11d vs opponent's 6d
!Coming off 3 losses in a row
The model makes S. Ofner the favorite with a 55% win probability, against J. Fearnley's 45% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.83; the offered odds are around @2.30 (a 43% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.
Several factors explain the number: #124 vs #159 (better ranked); model 55% vs market 43% → the model sees it as more likely than the odds; 5/10 in recent matches; 11d vs opponent's 6d.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 55%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 45 out of every 100 times Fearnley wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Coming off 3 losses in a row. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.