MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-08-01
HARD

R. Zarazua vs D. Vidmanovaprediction

Memphis (Usa) - Qualification
✗ Missed
ZARAZUAWIN PROBABILITYVIDMANOVA
53%
model prob.
@2.12
odds · 47% impl.
Rest 1d vs 2dHard 39%🎾Serve 57%📈Form 6/10 · 3✓
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCHin the modelcontext
Surface
Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Surface feeds the model — surface specialization is one of its factors.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

Ranking: #75 vs #92 (better ranked)

Model 53% vs market 47% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds

Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches

On a streak: 3 wins in a row

Match-sharp: 6 matches in the last 2 weeks

Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.
@1.87
fair odds
+13.1%
expected value
BREAKDOWN · MODEL ANALYSIS

The model makes R. Zarazua the favorite with a 53% win probability, against D. Vidmanova's 47% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.87; the offered odds are around @2.12 (a 47% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.

Several factors explain the number: #75 vs #92 (better ranked); model 53% vs market 47% → the model sees it as more likely than the odds; 6/10 in recent matches; 3 wins in a row.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 53%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 47 out of every 100 times Vidmanova wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

Analyze today's matches →