A. Korneeva vs M. Stoiana — prediction
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Context we publish for you: these conditions do NOT move the model probability.
›Ranking: #90 vs #173 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 7/10 in recent matches
›More rested: 14d vs opponent's 4d
The model makes A. Korneeva the favorite with a 68% win probability, against M. Stoiana's 32% — a solid favorite, though Stoiana keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.47; the offered odds are around @1.46 (a 68% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.
Several factors explain the number: #90 vs #173 (better ranked); 7/10 in recent matches; 14d vs opponent's 4d.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 68%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 32 out of every 100 times Stoiana wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.