A. Wazny vs N. Larwig — prediction

The 169-point Elo gap (1554 vs 1385) is the foundation of Wazny's favorite status, translating into a 73% model win probability. This is reinforced by recent form: Wazny has won 6 of his last 10 matches, while Larwig has lost 9 of his last 10, snapping his skid only in the most recent outing.

Together these two signals point in the same direction — a higher-rated player who is also playing with more competitive rhythm against an opponent still searching for consistency.

Wazny's own numbers — 57% of service points won and 45% of return points won — describe a player who is competitive on both sides of the ball, which fits with his higher Elo rating. No equivalent serve or return data exists for Larwig, so a direct comparison isn't possible, but Wazny's balanced profile is consistent with the rating gap favoring him.

Both players are back on court after just 1 day of rest, so fatigue from recovery time is a wash. Wazny has played slightly more over the last two weeks (2 matches vs 1), a minor difference that does not meaningfully shift the picture in either direction.

Wazny is a legitimate favorite by rating and form, but the market has already priced him even more heavily: odds of 1.09 imply a 92% win probability, well above the model's 73% estimate. That gap produces a -20.8% expected value, meaning the price offers no margin even if Wazny is the more likely winner.

This is an Elo-based estimate in a soft ITF market, so the edge is unproven and should be read as a probability estimate, not a betting signal. Favorite status here does not equal value.