A. Rus vs C. Paquet — prediction
Slow court, high bounce: longer points, rewards whoever holds up from the baseline.
Mild: neutral conditions.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #119 vs #236 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 4/10 in recent matches
›Match-sharp: 6 matches in the last 2 weeks
The core gap between these two players is structural: Rus sits at #119 with a 1494 Elo rating, well clear of Paquet's #236 ranking and 1425 Elo. That difference translates into the model's 59% baseline win probability for Rus, reflecting a meaningful but not overwhelming class edge — this is a clear favorite, not a lock.
Rus also holds a tangible edge in the underlying point-by-point numbers: she wins 57% of her service points against Paquet's 53%, and she returns better too (51% vs 48%). Because she is stronger on both sides of the ball, she does not need to rely on one dimension of her game to control rallies, which reinforces the ranking-based edge rather than just restating it.
Recent form is roughly a wash and mildly favors Paquet on paper — she is 4-6 in her last 10 matches (LLWWLLWLLW) compared to Rus at 3-7 (LLLLWWLWLW). Both players reached the Hamburg semifinals a day ago, so the deep-run fatigue applies to each of them equally as context, not as a differentiator.
Where the schedule does separate them is cumulative load: Rus has played 6 matches in the last 14 days versus Paquet's 4, which is a real physical difference even though both are working on one day of rest. Layered on top of that, the data flags a 369-day layoff for Rus as a rustiness risk — a caution worth noting even though her current serve/return numbers look solid.
At odds of 1.61, the market implies a 62% win probability for Rus, while the model puts her at 59%. That gap produces a -5.2% expected value, meaning the price is slightly rich relative to the model's own estimate. Rus is the more probable winner based on ranking, Elo, and serve/return quality, but being the favorite here is not the same as being a value bet — on this pricing, there is no statistical edge to lean on.
Impact and analysis from real match data (Elo, form, head-to-head, rest, surface vs baseline, weather, altitude). The model ≈ the market on average; the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.